Eight quantitative engines, the rules each one runs, and the last trade each one actually took in backtest — drawn on a TradingView chart with entry, stop loss, take profit and timeframe.
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Project
Deltalyn
Drawing
System blueprint
Engines
08 declared · 04 drawn
Data
To close 2026-09-11
Exported
2026-09-12 02:58 UTC
Status
Research · places no orders
Scale 1:1 · real candles · real engine code · no live result drawn in public
Every engine starts from the same four readings and turns them into a single vote — long, or abstain with a written reason. The vote goes to the risk gate; nothing here ever reaches a broker.
Price
OHLC candles, 1D or 4H
Volume
Confirms or vetoes a break
Indicators
SMA · EMA · RSI · ATR · z-score
Structure
Channels · prior highs · regime
Engine · decide()
Pure function of closed bars
Vote
Long · or abstain, with the reason
Risk gate
Last door · fail-closed
Engine inventory
08 engines · source of each drawing below
E-01 · ROTATION·LEV
Leveraged rotation
TF · 1D
TQQQ · SOXL · SPXL
Reads: Underlying vs SMA50/200 · realised-vol percentile · 20-day high · volume
Before an engine votes, it writes the state of the market down: trend, key levels, momentum, volatility — and what would prove it wrong. Members see today's memo for every engine and the exact level that would activate it.
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Members only
Today's memos and activation levels are on the desk.
Each engine's context memo — trend, key levels, momentum, volatility, invalidation — and the exact price that would activate it, drawn on today's chart. Included with the Analyst and Full Board plans.
Every engine is a function over closed bars: the same inputs always return the same vote. These are the parameters each one runs with today, read from its own configuration — plus a Pine mirror you can load on TradingView.
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ROTATION·LEV
Leveraged rotation
TF · 1D
Regimeunderlying close > SMA50 > SMA200
And20-day realised vol ≤ 60th percentile of the last year
And3× daily compounding tracks the underlying within tolerance
Triggerclose > prior 20-day high · volume ≥ 1.2× average
Stopentry − 1.5 × ATR14
Targetentry + 3 × ATR14 · min R:R 1.5
Timeexit after 30 sessions
Pine Script v6 · Leveraged rotation+
Indicator only · paste into TradingView's Pine editor
//@version=6
indicator("Deltalyn · Leveraged rotation — blueprint", shorttitle = "VNT ROT", overlay = true)
// Daily chart of TQQQ, SOXL or SPXL. Set the matching unleveraged index.
underlying = input.symbol("NASDAQ:QQQ", "Underlying (QQQ / SOXX / SPY)")
smaFastLen = input.int(50, "Trend SMA fast")
smaSlowLen = input.int(200, "Trend SMA slow")
volLen = input.int(20, "Realised-vol lookback")
volPctLen = input.int(252, "Vol percentile window")
volPctMax = input.float(60, "Max vol percentile")
brkLen = input.int(20, "Breakout lookback")
volMult = input.float(1.2, "Volume confirmation x")
atrLen = input.int(14, "ATR length")
stopMult = input.float(1.5, "Stop = entry - ATR x")
targetMult = input.float(3.0, "Target = entry + ATR x")
maxHold = input.int(30, "Max holding (sessions)")
// Regime is read on the UNDERLYING: close > SMA50 > SMA200, realised vol in
// its lower percentiles. (The engine's tracking-drift check is not replicated.)
[uClose, uFast, uSlow, uVolPct] = request.security(underlying, "D", [close, ta.sma(close, smaFastLen), ta.sma(close, smaSlowLen), ta.percentrank(ta.stdev(close / close[1] - 1, volLen), volPctLen)], lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off)
regimeOk = uClose > uFast and uFast > uSlow and uVolPct <= volPctMax
// Trigger on the leveraged ETF: close above the PRIOR 20-day high on volume.
priorHigh = ta.highest(high, brkLen)[1]
volumeOk = volume >= ta.sma(volume, brkLen)[1] * volMult
atrVal = ta.sma(ta.tr(true), atrLen)
signal = regimeOk and close > priorHigh and volumeOk
// One position at a time; exit on stop, target or time, like the backtest.
var float entry = na
var float stop = na
var float target = na
var int entryBar = na
exited = false
if not na(entry)
if low <= stop or high >= target or bar_index - entryBar >= maxHold
entry := na
stop := na
target := na
entryBar := na
exited := true
if na(entry) and not exited and signal
entry := close
stop := close - atrVal * stopMult
target := close + atrVal * targetMult
entryBar := bar_index
plot(priorHigh, "Activation: 20-day high", color = #E3C68C, style = plot.style_stepline)
plot(entry, "Entry", color = #C2934A, linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_linebr)
plot(stop, "Stop loss", color = #FB7185, style = plot.style_linebr)
plot(target, "Take profit", color = #34D399, style = plot.style_linebr)
plotshape(entryBar == bar_index, title = "Entry signal", style = shape.triangleup, location = location.belowbar, color = #C2934A, size = size.small)
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DONCHIAN·4H
Crypto Donchian · longs
TF · 4H
Regimeprice > SMA200 on 4H closes
Mode 1within 2% of the lower band · RSI < 40 turning up · rejection candle → SL min(band − 1.5%, entry − 0.6%) · TP upper band
Real candles, the engine's own code, and its most recent closed trade in backtest — entry, stop loss and take profit drawn to the cent. Every chart here is history, not a signal.
▲ BUY entry▼ SELL · hit target▼ SELL · stopped out▼ SELL · closed on time
ROTATION·LEV · engine backtest
Leveraged rotation
Each 3× ETF trades only while its own index is in a calm uptrend. The trigger is a close above the prior 20-day high on volume.
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TQQQ · Nasdaq-100 3xTF · 1D
Backtest · not a live result
2024-04-09 → 2024-08-09 · 86 bars · 1D
Trade spec
Entry
35.98
close · 2024-06-12
SL
34.08
entry − 1.5×ATR14
TP
39.79
entry + 3×ATR14
Exit
Take profit hit
2024-07-05 · 15 sessions · +2.01R
Trades
17
Win rate
52.9%
Sample 2017-12-15 → 2024-07-05
Avg per trade
+0.58R
total +9.94R
Median hold
11
days
Run with the engine's own backtestPair(): reproduced trade for trade, and identical to its scan of 2026-09-11 17:49 ET.
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SOXL · Semiconductors 3xTF · 1D
Backtest · not a live result
2025-11-10 → 2026-03-05 · 79 bars · 1D
Trade spec
Entry
58.08
close · 2026-01-15
SL
52.83
entry − 1.5×ATR14
TP
68.58
entry + 3×ATR14
Exit
Take profit hit
2026-01-28 · 8 sessions · +2.00R
Trades
25
Win rate
44.0%
Sample 2017-10-18 → 2026-01-28
Avg per trade
+0.32R
total +8.01R
Median hold
10
days
Run with the engine's own backtestPair(): reproduced trade for trade, and identical to its scan of 2026-09-11 17:49 ET.
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SPXL · S&P 500 3xTF · 1D
Backtest · not a live result
2025-10-08 → 2026-01-21 · 72 bars · 1D
Trade spec
Entry
227.57
close · 2025-12-11
SL
218.27
entry − 1.5×ATR14
TP
246.17
entry + 3×ATR14
Exit
Stop loss hit
2025-12-12 · 1 session · -1.00R
Trades
19
Win rate
47.4%
Sample 2017-10-04 → 2025-12-12
Avg per trade
+0.42R
total +7.98R
Median hold
9
days
Run with the engine's own backtestPair(): reproduced trade for trade, and identical to its scan of 2026-09-11 17:49 ET.
DONCHIAN·4H · replayed backtest · longs
Crypto Donchian channel
Dotted lines are the 20-bar channel the engine saw at each close; the solid grey line is its EMA20.
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BTCUSD · Donchian 20TF · 4H
Backtest · not a live result
2026-08-19 → 2026-09-04 · 102 bars · 4H
Trade spec
Entry
78,854.14
long pullback · 2026-08-30 16:00 UTC
SL
77,711.10
min(4-bar low × 0.997, entry − 0.60%)
TP
81,140.23
entry + 2R
Exit
Stop loss hit
2026-08-30 20:00 UTC · 1 bar · -1.00R
Trades
25
Win rate
36.0%
Sample 2024-11-02 → 2026-08-30
Avg per trade
+0.05R
total +1.29R
Median hold
17
4H bars
The engine keeps no backtest of its own. This replays its decide() once per closed 4H bar over 4,379 bars of Coinbase BTC-USD, 1H candles aggregated to UTC 4H — longs only, exit at SL or TP, both in one bar counts as SL. Its channel matches the engine's live scan within 0.02%.
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ETHUSD · Donchian 20TF · 4H
Backtest · not a live result
2026-08-20 → 2026-09-06 · 105 bars · 4H
Trade spec
Entry
2,471.60
long pullback · 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC
SL
2,426.12
min(4-bar low × 0.997, entry − 0.60%)
TP
2,562.56
entry + 2R
Exit
Stop loss hit
2026-09-01 16:00 UTC · 4 bars · -1.00R
Trades
40
Win rate
40.0%
Sample 2024-11-06 → 2026-09-01
Avg per trade
+0.26R
total +10.33R
Median hold
11
4H bars
The engine keeps no backtest of its own. This replays its decide() once per closed 4H bar over 4,379 bars of Coinbase ETH-USD, 1H candles aggregated to UTC 4H — longs only, exit at SL or TP, both in one bar counts as SL. Its channel matches the engine's live scan exactly. 1 simulated position still open at the end of the data is not drawn — it would read as a live signal.
STAT-ARB · engine backtest
Pairs mean reversion
The priority pair is drawn; the table holds the engine's backtest for all four pairs, losers included.
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ETH vs BTC · spread zTF · 1D
Backtest · not a live result
2026-07-25 → 2026-09-10 · 48 bars · 1D
Trade spec
Entry
z -2.43
2026-09-03 · long ETH · short BTC
SL
z -3.50
|z| reaches the stop band
TP
z -0.50
|z| back to the exit band
Exit
Take profit hit
2026-09-10 · 7 sessions · +1.80R
Trades
99
Win rate
23.2%
Sample 2017-03-10 → 2026-09-10
Avg per trade
-0.17R
total -16.54R
Median hold
9
days
Reported in z-score units, never in price — the engine's own convention. Exits are scored in the entry-day frame (β, mean, σ held fixed).
Pair
Trades
Win rate
Avg / trade
Total
Last trade
Reproduced
ETH vs BTC
99
23.2%
-0.17R
-16.54R
2026-09-03 · TP +1.80R
✓ engine code
COIN vs ETH
33
42.4%
+0.08R
+2.67R
2026-08-19 · TIME +0.18R
✓ engine code
MSTR vs ETH
75
38.7%
+0.49R
+36.69R
2026-07-10 · SL -1.00R
✓ engine code
CRCL vs COIN
3
33.3%
+0.55R
+1.66R
2026-07-01 · SL -1.00R
✓ engine code
PROBABILITY · public evidence output
Setup evidence engine
Grades every setup from the pessimistic end of a 95% interval. A small, flattering sample gets a D.
Levels rebuilt from the engine's published rules — next-bar open, 2×ATR14 stop, 2R target, 40-session cap — and checked against its own recorded outcomes: 73/73 ETHUSD trades match exactly.
No publishable backtest
Engines with nothing to draw
Shown on purpose: an empty frame beats an invented trade.
No data · TJL
Trend Join Long keeps no in-engine backtest and scans only on intraday bars, 10:00–15:30 ET. Drawing a trade here would mean inventing one. Its rules are mirrored in Pine on sheet 03.
No data · HMM regime
Produces no entries by design: it infers the market's hidden state and scales the other engines. No entry, stop or target exists to draw. Members see today's state on sheet 02.
No data · Risk gate
Its inputs are live positions, which are private and never published. The rules it enforces are listed on sheet 03.
No data · ETH accumulation
Its output depends on private capital settings, so nothing from it is published on this page.
Seven questions every backtest has to answer. A verdict is given only where the system actually computes the check; everything else is marked not evaluated — and that alone keeps an engine from a clean pass.
Pass
0
subjects
Review
4
subjects
Fail
6
subjects
Engine · subject
Look-ahead bias
Overfitting
Sample size
Fees & slippage
Weak stop
Regime dependence
Expectancy
Verdict
TQQQ
Leveraged rotation · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Fail
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Fail
SOXL
Leveraged rotation · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Fail
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Fail
SPXL
Leveraged rotation · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Fail
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Fail
BTC
Crypto Donchian · long · 4H
Pass
Not eval.
Fail
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Fail
ETH
Crypto Donchian · long · 4H
Pass
Not eval.
Review
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Review
ETH vs BTC
Pairs mean reversion · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Pass
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Fail
Fail
COIN vs ETH
Pairs mean reversion · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Review
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Review
MSTR vs ETH
Pairs mean reversion · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Pass
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Review
CRCL vs COIN
Pairs mean reversion · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Fail
Not eval.
Not eval.
Not eval.
Pass
Fail
ETHUSD · Donchian-20
Setup evidence · 1D
Pass
Not eval.
Pass
Not eval.
Not eval.
Review
Pass
Review
Sample-size thresholds are the evidence engine's own (n ≥ 50 for a pass, 30–49 for review). Expectancy is gross — no fees or slippage are modelled, which is exactly why that check reads not evaluated. TJL, the HMM, the risk gate and ETH accumulation have no publishable backtest and are not audited here.
Evidence behind every verdict +
TQQQ · Leveraged rotation
PassLook-ahead bias: Walk-forward: each day sees only bars up to itself; the 20-day high excludes today.
Not eval.Overfitting: No out-of-sample or parameter-sensitivity run is computed.
PassExpectancy: +0.22R per trade at the pessimistic end of the interval, gross.
X: 050.00Deltalyn · System blueprint
Sources
Daily candles from the engine's local 10-year end-of-day history; crypto 4H candles from Coinbase's public API. Backtests run the engine's own code. Evidence grades as published by the engine itself.
What this is not
Research, not advice. No page here places an order or suggests an amount. Backtests are gross of fees and slippage; a past trade drawn on a chart is not a forecast.
Revision
Data to close 2026-09-11 Exported 2026-09-12 02:58 UTC